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A One-Year 2025 M≥5 Earthquake Forecast for Japan Based on Rate/State Coulomb Stress Transfer Projects a Lasting and Far-reaching Impact of 2011 M 9.0 Tohoku shock
AGU 2024
seismology | 12 december 2024
Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein
We contend that there is sufficient evidence that earthquakes promote and inhibit failure on nearby faults, a process governed principally by Coulomb ...
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Why Do Great Continental Transform Earthquakes Nucleate on Branch Faults?
AGU 2024
tectonophysics | 11 december 2024
Ross S. Stein, Peter Bird
The five M≥7.8 continental transform earthquakes since 2000 all nucleated on branch faults. These include the 2001 M 7.8 Kokoxili (Tibet), 2002 M 7.9 ...
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Temblor-Taiwan: A Web-GIS and Mobile Application Platform Showcasing Natural Hazards in Taiwan
REALLY USEFUL GEOPHYSICAL DATA TOOLS AND APPS POSTER
tectonophysics | 15 december 2023
Chung-Han Chan, Volkan Sevilgen, Ross S. Stein, KU...
We have developed a platform that displays a range of natural hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, liquefaction, and tsunamis, and made it acce...
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Implications of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquakes for California
THE TÜRKIYE EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE OF FEBRUARY 2023: HUMAN AND ENGINEERING IMPACTS, SCIENTIFIC FINDINGS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK AND RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES IN THE UNITED STATES AND ELSEWHERE I POSTER
union sessions | 14 december 2023
Ross S. Stein, Volkan Sevilgen, Shinji Toda, Ali O...
The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes stole the lives of 53,000 people, left 2 million homeless, and will cost an estimated $34 billion in damage. While there...
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The Role of Stress Changes in Rupture Nucleation and Inhibition in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Sequence, and a One-Year Earthquake Forecast
TECTONIC SETTING, GEOPHYSICS, SURFACE RUPTURES, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF 6 FEBRUARY 2023 EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE IN SOUTHERN TÜRKIYE AND NORTHWESTERN SYRIA II POSTER
tectonophysics | 13 december 2023
Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein
We probe the interaction of large earthquakes on the East Anatolian Fault Zone, site of four M≥6.8 events since 2020. We find that the 2023 M 7.8 Paza...
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Building an Efficient, Fair, and Testable Engine to Drive Parametric Earthquake Insurance in the Developing World
APPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE, PRACTICE, AND POLICY TO IN(EN)SURE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH RISK TRANSFER I ORAL
natural hazards | 13 december 2023
Ross S. Stein, Volkan Sevilgen
Indemnity insurance places severe demands on both providers and policy holders that are difficult to meet in the developing world. Deductibles, limits...
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Megathrust Earthquakes Cause a Central Shutdown of Seismicity that Lasts for Centuries, and a Surrounding Activation of Seismicity that Lasts for Decades
MULTISCALE CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN SUBDUCTION ZONES AND THE MEGATHRUST EARTHQUAKE CYCLE: PROGRESS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS VI ORAL
tectonophysics | 16 december 2022
Ross S. Stein, Shinji Toda
Megathrusts aftershocks can reach M~8, and so can be highly destructive if they strike close to shore. Here we show that an initially high rate of aft...
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The 2016 M 7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, Earthquake Turned Seismicity on and off over a Broad Area for the Past 6 Years, a Product of Stress Transfer to a Diverse set of Surrounding Faults, and a Complex Rupture Termination
STRUCTURE, MECHANICS, AND HAZARDS OF GEOMETRICALLY COMPLEX FAULT SYSTEMS IV ORAL
tectonophysics | 13 december 2022
Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein
The 16 April 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake produced a ~30-km-long rupture on the previously-mapped Futagawa and Hinagu faults, with ≤2.4 m dextral s...
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