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Using an Ocean State Estimate to Improve Attribution and Prediction of Sea Level along the U.S. Gulf Coast
ADVANCING PREDICTIONS OF SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ACROSS SUBSEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL TIMESCALES II POSTER
ocean sciences | 13 december 2024
Andrew S. Delman, Ou Wang, Tong Lee, Thomas Freder...
Predictions of regional sea level (SL) variability on subseasonal to decadal timescales have become increasingly relevant for hazard mitigation and co...
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An Advanced Framework for Disentangling Deterministic Dynamics and Stochastic Processes in ENSO Predictability
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY ON SUBSEASONAL TO CENTENNIAL TIMESCALES II POSTER
atmospheric sciences | 12 december 2024
Caitlin Martinez, Benjamin Kirtman, Sarah Larson
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the tropical Pacific and plays an essential role in modula...
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Solutions for Accommodating Temporally Limited Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Data: Using Harmonics to Generate a Climatology
IMPROVEMENTS TO SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL AND SEASONAL TO DECADAL (S2S/S2D) PREDICTIONS USING NOVEL STATISTICAL, MACHINE, AND DEEP LEARNING METHODS II ORAL
atmospheric sciences | 12 december 2024
Tyler M. Fenske, Samantha J Kramer, Kayla Besong-C...
As part of the development of a new database of fire weather variables, a period normal is required to convert the data into an anomaly space. The mos...
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Sources of Predictability for Subseasonal Precipitation in South America
EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY ACROSS TIMESCALES FOR CLIMATE SECURITY: GRAND CHALLENGES AND RECENT ADVANCEMENTS II POSTER
global environmental change | 11 december 2024
Kathleen Pegion, Emily J. Becker, Benjamin Kirtman
The only region of significant average subseasonal precipitation skill identified in multi-model subseasonal hindcasts is in South America, primarily ...
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Challenges in Seasonal Prediction
EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY ACROSS TIMESCALES FOR CLIMATE SECURITY: GRAND CHALLENGES AND RECENT ADVANCEMENTS II POSTER
global environmental change | 11 december 2024
Emily J. Becker, Benjamin Kirtman
Why arent seasonal predictions substantially improving, despite well-documented modeling advancements? Model improvement activities often focus on lon...
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Hyper-local Climate Projections Using Convective-Permitting Simulations in the Southern Florida Region
REGIONAL CLIMATE: MODELING, ANALYSIS, AND IMPACTS I POSTER
global environmental change | 09 december 2024
Rachel Gaal, Benjamin Kirtman, Amy C. Clement, Bri...
Capturing hyper-local variability within current global climate models is not yet viable, which poses problems for decision makers at the regional lev...
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North Atlantic Warming Hole Modulates Interhemispheric Asymmetry of Future Temperature and Precipitation
EARTH'S FUTURE
12 june 2024
in-Hong Park, Sang-Wook Yeh, Boris Dewitte, Guojia...
The observed cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic, known as the warming hole, is receiving much attention because of its relationship with the cl...
Impact of MJO Propagation Speed on Active Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Periods
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
06 march 2024
Kurt Hansen, Matthew Janiga, Sharanya Majumdar, Be...
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is often used for subseasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, TC activity still h...