Noemi is an exceptionally talented early-career researcher whose research on computational hydrology has provided outstanding contributions to solving water and food security challenges. Noemi develops scalable approaches for hydrological prediction by advancing realism in hyperresolution (tens of meters) land surface models through big geospatial data, satellite land data assimilation, machine learning and high-performance computing, including the representation of human water management such as irrigation and groundwater pumping. These cutting-edge computational approaches enable monitoring and understanding of complex hydrological processes at unprecedented spatial scales and over continental domains that otherwise would be infeasible. Noemi’s work bridges a significant research gap and forms the basis for solving societal problems around water and food security, targeting the spatial scales at which impacts occur and decision-making is implemented, through improved monitoring of crop water demands, hydrologic extremes and other natural hazards.

She developed an assimilation framework (Vergopolan et al., 2020, Remote Sensing of Environment) to represent soil moisture variability at local scale which outperformed state-of-the-art satellite estimates and applied this approach to crop yield prediction (Vergopolan et al., 2021, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences), showing how localized estimates of food security risks are feasible across national domains. These tools are now being used for solutions on the ground, for example, forming the basis of operational flood early warning in southern Africa and quantifying maize yield gaps at field scale in Malawi to provide evidence to national food security policy. She has also pioneered the development of open-source, continental domain, hyperresolution data sets (Vergopolan et al., 2021, Scientific Data) that have potential for applications in water resources, agriculture, ecology and biogeochemistry and has enabled for the first time understanding of the scaling behavior of soil moisture at continental scales (Vergopolan et al., 2022, Geophysical Research Letters). Her current work on improving operational weather and subseasonal climate forecast systems as part of a NOAA fellowship has potential to provide early warning of hydrometeorological risks, especially for the most vulnerable of society.

Noemi’s research profile is outstanding for a researcher only 1 year since her Ph.D., with much of this a result of multidisciplinary collaborative work, which is critical to address complex societal problems around water, food and climate. As a young, female researcher from Brazil who has made great strides in the early part of her career, she is a role model for other young and talented Latin researchers and has done much to promote Earth and environmental science within and by this community.

— Justin Sheffield
University of Southampton
Southampton, United Kingdom

I am thrilled and honored to receive the AGU Science for Solutions Award. I am immensely thankful to Justin Sheffield for nominating me; his pioneer research on monitoring droughts and changes in terrestrial water through decision-supporting tools inspired me and shaped the scientist I am today. I also want to thank Elie Bou-Zeid, Marc Bierkens and Jay Famiglietti for their tremendous support in my nomination and throughout my scientific career. As hydrologic and climate predictions depict a future in which floods and droughts are the new normal, climate change poses an imminent threat to water and food security worldwide. To adapt and mitigate climate change impacts on freshwater systems, locally relevant hydrologic information is critical to support governance and water resources decision-makers in designing local interventions and implementing policies. We bridged this data gap by advancing realism in hyperresolution land surface models through big geospatial data, satellite land data assimilation, machine learning and high-performance computing. These novel approaches enabled hydrologic predictions at unprecedented scales and now are forming the basis for flood early warning in southern Africa and providing evidence to national food security policy in Zambia and Malawi. As a scientist, very little is as rewarding as seeing the impacts of our efforts on improving livelihoods. As Eric Wood would say, pushing the scientific barriers requires courage. Courage to be creative, courage to be persistent, and courage to think in ways others aren't. As scientists, it is our duty to embrace challenges in water and food security with courage, as the future of the next generations depends on the scientific advances we make today. For a positive impact on society, it has been my mission to advance hydrological monitoring and predictions targeting the spatial scales that can support solutions on the ground. I am grateful to my Ph.D. advisers, Eric F. Wood and Justin Sheffield — their research vision and commitment to scientific excellence have always inspired me. I am thankful to Nathaniel Chaney, Niko Wanders, Elena Shevliakova and Hylke Beck; their mentorship and encouragement nurtured the researcher I am today. I am deeply grateful to all who supported me along the way and to AGU for honoring me with the 2022 Science for Solutions Award. — Noemi Vergopolan Princeton University Princeton, New Jersey NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, New Jersey